Deradicalization efforts won't work until the jihadis think they are defeated

And in that regard the power of self-delusion is not to be underestimated.

Here are three 'discussions' from al-Faloja, where deradicalization efforts are reported on but fail to generate any response:

One
Two
Three

I recommend Peter Neumann's recent article "Do Exit Programs for Islamists Actually Work?"...

exit programs work best when the insurgents are losing. In Egypt, the members of the Islamic Group and Islamic Jihad joined exit programs in their hundreds -- but only after their leaderships were arrested and it had become obvious that their campaigns were going nowhere. Even in Iraq, the exit program started working properly only in 2007, when the Sunni insurgency was coming to an end and al-Qaida was virtually defeated.

Or, to put it another way: there is no substitute for victory.

Posted on 02 February 2010 @ 23:02