Asymmetric Warfare - it's not just for the other guys:
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26 May 2009
"If not for the serendipitous appearance of a confidential informant..."

The quote in the title is from Steven Emerson's article on the recent arrest of the Newburgh Four. Emerson's focus is on prison recruitment (the suspects are all reported to have converted to Islam while in prison). I'm thinking about something different, however.

In order to be successful terrorists, self-organizing jihadis need a number of things, not least of which being access to explosives (or other weaponry). Such access typically comes in the form of person or persons claiming the necessary expertise or the means to acquire such things. If the plotters don't have the expertise or connections, and if they cannot be sure a person claiming such things isn't a government agent, the plot stalls, interest fades, nothing happens. This is probably the greatest value in prosecutions such as this.

Can the necessary expertise be acquired on the Internet? Sure. But then again, perhaps that is how it came to be known that there was something bad brewing in Newburgh. Was it really serendipity that led an informant with previous involvement in terrorism prosecutions to show up in Newburgh and start fishing for jihadis, or was his appearance there preceded by intelligence recommending an effort be made to flush out jihadis in the Masjid Al-Ikhlas?

The facts of the matter do not matter. All that matters is that jihadis don't know who to trust, don't know what to trust, cannot easily find what they need either online or offline.

Happy surfing, my brothers. (And by the way, TATP just got easier to detect, so have fun cooking up RDX from scratch, or trying to explain to the guys at the farm supply store that you need three tons of ammonium nitrate because Allah has commanded you to grow corn).

Posted on 26 May 2009 @ 13:21

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