For starters, see How Online Recruitment Works at jihadica.com.
Keep in mind that any discussion of this subject requires agreement on the meaning of the term recruitment, and before we can speak about how effective the Internet in general is, or how effective forums in particular are, we need to first determine how we can measure effectiveness.
Under the circumstances I'm not sure we can measure effectiveness - not really. Nevertheless it seems clear that if all the guys we see jumping up and down on jihadi forums yelling "Allahu Akbar! Allahu Akbar!!" were actively involved in jihad-inspired terrorist activity, there would be a heck of a lot more terrorism occurring in the world today.
In the course of trying to understand this issue, I have been developing a theory called Differential Jihadization, which leans heavily on criminological theories about delinquency, and research that addresses why - all other factors being more or less equal - some people become involved in criminal activity while many others do not.
In a nutshell, the theory states that to make good on their jihadi ambitions, the aspiring terrorist needs three things:
• Motivation
• Association
• Opportunity
Motivation is the easiest to come by, though it requires constant reinforcement, and the Internet does a pretty good job of keeping that fire stoked.
Association, as in knowing people who can be of assistance in traveling to some land of jihad and joining up with an existing group of mujahedin, or with whom one can join together to train, plan, and carry out an attack, is harder to come by. The fear, uncertainty, and doubt created by the recent disappearance of prominent jihadi forums can only inhibit the development of the trust necessary for online activists to become real-world terrorists.
Opportunities are also hard to come by. Consider the issue of explosives: first you need the motivation to try and make explosives, and the associates with whom to share the nerve-wracking experience. As for opportunities, you need reliable instructions, access to ingredients, and a place to discretely test the explosives you have cooked up and the devices you have assembled from them.
When we see so-called Internet jihadis who become active in real-world plots, they frequently come from the ranks of the forum activists, the guys who are more than just part of the Allahu Akbar chorus. It is through their online associations and the opportunities that the Internet provides that they are able to begin actually participating in the jihad.
See also: Regarding "Anatomy of a Modern Homegrown Terror Cell: Aabid Khan et al."
Posted on 29 September 2008 @ 16:17